Idiosyncratic Production Risk, Growth, and the Business Cycle [report]

George-Marios Angeletos, Laurent Calvet
2003 unpublished
We introduce a neoclassical growth economy with idiosyncratic production risk and incomplete markets. Each agent is an entrepreneur operating her own neoclassical technology with her own capital stock. The general equilibrium is characterized in closed form. Idiosyncratic production shocks introduce a risk premium on private equity and reduce the demand for investment. The steady state is characterized by a lower capital stock due to investment risk and a lower interest rate due to
more » ... savings as compared to complete markets. The anticipation of low savings and high real interest rates in the future feeds back into high risk premia and low investment in the present, thus slowing down convergence to the steady state. More generally, countercyclicality in private risk premia is identified as a source of amplification and persistence in the business cycle. for detailed feedback and extensive discussions. We also received helpful comments from P. Aghion, A.
doi:10.3386/w9764 fatcat:bnnubwde2rasnkzkonmjdcz3ze