DO HIGH SPEED RAILWAYS LEAD TO URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA?

Jack Strauss
2017 Proceedings of the 8th Economics & Finance Conference, London   unpublished
This paper investigates the impact of high-speed railroads (HSR) on city-level economic activity using a new dataset for approximately 200 cities in China from 2007-2014. We apply panel Granger causality methods to assess whether increases in a city's accessibility increases GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and wage growth. Or does causality run the opposite way -does rising economic growth boost accessibility? Results document that increases in accessibility lead to significant and relatively
more » ... large increases in GDP growth on the city-level; further, the benefits substantially out-weigh HSR's fixed costs, depreciation and subsidies. Out-of-sample methods document the importance of increases in HSR in forecasting GDP growth. Monte Carlo simulations document the usefulness of OLS and out-of-sample tests in assessing panel Granger Causality tests.
doi:10.20472/efc.2017.008.012 fatcat:hbzgkpdj3ffy5as2imftzrz52q