Hepatitis B vaccination as an elimination tool assessed in a paediatric cohort and simulated in a model [article]

Anna McNaughton, Jose Lourenco, Louise Hattingh, Emily Adland, Samantha Daniels, Anriette van Zyl, Connie S. Akiror, Susan Wareing, Katie Jeffery, Azim Ansari, Paul Klenerman, Philip Goulder (+3 others)
2017 bioRxiv   pre-print
Sustainable Development Goals set a challenge for the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as a public health concern by the year 2030. We here set out to evaluate the current and future role of HBV vaccination and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) as tools for elimination, through the combined scrutiny of a paediatric cohort in South Africa and a new model to simulate transmission and prevention. Existing efforts have been successful in reducing prevalence of
more » ... prevalence of infection (HBsAg) in children to <1%. Our model anticipates that current combination efforts of vaccination and PMTCT can significantly reduce population prevalence (HBsAg) by 2030, but will reduce the prevalence of HBV e-antigen (HBeAg)-positive carriers more slowly, with potential implications for public health control. With strategies and resources already available, significant, positive public health impact is possible, although time to HBV elimination as a public health concern is likely to be substantially longer than that proposed by current goals.
doi:10.1101/162594 fatcat:kq27w2bid5akrbnjk4v6z3ximq