IL-6 and IL-10 as predictors of disease severity in COVID 19 patients: Results from Meta-analysis and Regression [article]

Sujan K Dhar, Vishnupriyan K, Sharat Damodar, Shashi Gujar, Manjula Das
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Objectives: SARS-CoV-2, an infectious agent behind the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, induces high levels of cytokines in patients contributing to the disease patho-physiology. Nonetheless, exact association and contribution of particular cytokines towards COVID-19 pathology remains poorly understood. This study performed a comprehensive meta-analysis to establish association between induced cytokines and COVID-19 disease severity to help in prognosis and clinical management. Methods: Scientific
more » ... erature was searched to identify 18 clinical studies. Standardized mean difference (SMD) for cytokines IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α and IFN-γ between severe and non-severe COVID-19 patient groups were summarized using random effects model. A classifier was built using logistic regression model with cytokines having significant SMD as covariates. Results: Out of the 6 cytokines, IL-6 and IL-10 showed statistically significant SMD across the studies synthesized. Classifier with mean values of both IL-6 and IL-10 as covariates performed well with accuracy of ~ 92% that was significantly higher than accuracy reported in literature with IL-6 and IL-10 as individual covariates. Conclusions: Simple panel proposed by us with only two cytokine markers can be used as predictors for fast diagnosis of patients with higher risk of COVID-19 disease deterioration and thus can be managed well for a favourable prognosis.
doi:10.1101/2020.08.15.20175844 fatcat:avzntcjojnahlgt4pmj44jq35y