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Calibrated and Sharp Uncertainties in Deep Learning via Simple Density Estimation
[article]
2021
arXiv
pre-print
Predictive uncertainties can be characterized by two properties--calibration and sharpness. This paper argues for reasoning about uncertainty in terms these properties and proposes simple algorithms for enforcing them in deep learning. Our methods focus on the strongest notion of calibration--distribution calibration--and enforce it by fitting a low-dimensional density or quantile function with a neural estimator. The resulting approach is much simpler and more broadly applicable than previous
arXiv:2112.07184v1
fatcat:qaw6we4azjcgvg26acudtyazre