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Cross-Sectional Dispersion in Economic Forecasts and Expected Stock Returns
2014
Social Science Research Network
This paper introduces a broad index of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the ex-ante measures of cross-sectional dispersion in economic forecasts by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We estimate individual stock exposures to a newly proposed measure of economic uncertainty index and find that the resulting uncertainty beta predicts a significant proportion of the cross-sectional dispersion in stock returns. After controlling for a large set of stock characteristics and risk factors, we
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2407279
fatcat:p66yfxh5qvddtnwxtsyzeuudju