Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002

Bismarck Javier Arevilca Vasquez, Wiston Adrián Risso
2007 Social Science Research Network  
Theoretical and empirical literature have focused on supply factors when studying economic growth determinants. The present work analyzes demand factors as determinants of the Bolivian economic growth between 1953-2002 using framework introduced by Thirlwall (1979). According to cointegration analysis exports were an important determinant in the Bolivian economic growth for the whole period. In addition, real exchange rate presents a negative relationship respect to the long run growth. Further
more » ... run growth. Further results show that Bolivian imports are more elastics than exports respect to the GDP, determining a negative impact in trade balance. An hypothesis is that the implemented economic model after 1985 has increased the external constraint of the country causing a process of deindustrialization . Abstract Theoretical and empirical literature has focused on supply factors when studying economic growth determinants. The present work analyzes demand factors as determinants of the Bolivian economic growth between 1953-2002 using frameworks introduced by Thirlwall (1979) . According to cointegration analysis exports were an important determinant in the Bolivian economic growth for the whole period. In addition, real exchange rate presents a negative relationship respect to the long run growth. Further results show that Bolivian imports are more elastics than exports respect to the GDP, determining a negative impact in trade balance. Our hypothesis is that the implemented economic model after 1985 has increased the external constraint of the country causing a process of deindustrialization .
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1028251 fatcat:jqh4t5znw5cplbvb6h2jarcedy