Beck's cognitive theory of depression has received little empirical support. Aims To test whether those with negative self-schemas were at risk of onset of depression. Method Data were collected by postal questionnaire from 12003 women recruited during early pregnancy; questionnaires included measures of depressive symptoms and negative self-schemas. Regular questionnaires were sent during pregnancy and following childbirth. Results Of 8540 women not depressed when recruited, 8.6% (95% CI

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... 2) became depressed 14 weeks later. Those in the highest tertile for negative self-schema score were more likely to become depressed than those in the lowest tertile (odds ratio 3.04, 95% CI 2.48–3.73). The association remained after adjustment for baseline depressive symptoms and previous depression (OR 1.6, 95% CI1.27–2.02) and was of similar magnitude for onset 3 years later. Conclusions Holding a negative self-schema is an independent risk factor for the onset of depression in women. This finding supports a key element of Beck's cognitive theory. Understanding more about how negative self-schemas arise should help inform preventive policies.