Modelling and Forecasting Daily cases of COVID19 in Africa, Case study of ECOWAS Countires

Kingdom Nwuju
2020 figshare.com  
A critical investigation into the rate of spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has shown that, the daily confirmed cases of the disease tend to follow an upward trend. This paper aimed to develop a suitable Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model which can be used to statistically forecast the actual number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 recorded in ECOWAS as a whole. An adequate subset ARIMA (5, 1, 1) model is fitted and discussed. A forecast of 235 days from
more » ... th May 2020 to 31st December 2020, was carried out using the fitted model, and we discovered that the COVID-19 daily confirmed cases may most likely incline over the next six months.
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12974618.v1 fatcat:k7o7p4ws4vc4lhayf3ozhlad4q