This report describes a risk-based decision support system for designing and managing largescale water resource projects. A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process. Enhancing public welfare through the deliberate management of water resources is vital for every society. Pollution, overuse and consumption challenge a society's

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... ility to develop and sustain water supplies for municipal, agricultural, industrial, and recreational use while protecting fisheries and wetlands. Water resource management decisions are complex and involve risk. This project identifies a risk taxonomy to help managers identify where those risks are and their severity. These risk factors provide the foundation for a multi-attribute utility decision support tool for managers and policymakers. Quantifying the risks in competing courses of action is an essential first step. The risk taxonomy identifies 13 risk factors that comprise the physical, logical, and environmental domains. Physical factors are the tangible components of the system. Logical factors encompass the cognitive functions of the system, including such "soft" qualities as agility and selfsynchronization -the ability to organize and synchronize from the bottom up -both key factors in sustaining a management plan. Finally, environmental factors make up the setting in which the system exists, and includes not only weather-related issues, but also the role of well-intentioned humans and those who intend harm. Attributes of the essential risk elements are viewed in terms of utility and drive the decision process through traditional multi-attribute utility analysis. The result is a set of feasible alternatives that is both risk-based and value-focused for the decision maker to consider. The project is presented in the context of the Susquehanna River Basin that spans three states in the United States, with management interests at the state, regional, and national levels. The Susquehanna River is the sixteenth largest river in the United States and its tributaries drain 27,510 square miles. The project builds on work supporting the Susquehanna River Basin Commission's decision on managing the14-mile-long Conowingo Pool near the river's terminus. iii This project was conducted for the NATO Advanced Research Workshop held in Istanbul, Turkey, from 12 to 16 October 2006. The workshop brought together 60 scientists and engineers from 22 NATO, NATO Partnership, and NATO Dialogue counties to address critical issues of water resource management that may threaten the political stability of regions with scarce water resources.