Nutrient concentrations in coastal waters are influenced not only by land runoff, point sources, and water exchange with the sea but are also modified by settlement to and release from sediments. This complicates evaluation of measures to reduce nutrient loads. We used a mass-balance box model to calculate long-term (1968-2015) and seasonal source contributions to phosphorus (P) concentrations and cycling in the stratified Stockholm inner archipelago (IA), Baltic Sea. A drastic reduction of

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... ge P loads in the early 1970s reduced sewage from the major to a minor P source. Further P load reductions in the 1990s cut the direct contribution from the sewage point sources to the annual mean surface water P concentration from 10 μg l −1 (25%) to < 4 μg l −1 (12%). The largest contributions to the surface water P concentration are now (from 1996) inflowing seawater (37%), freshwater (25%), and P recycling from sediments below 20 m depth (26%). Variations in freshwater flushing give higher P concentrations in dry years, when dilution of P inputs from sediments and sewage is small, while in wet years, these inputs are greatly diluted. Source-partitioned phosphate uptake shows that the spring bloom is fueled mainly by P of seawater and freshwater origin, while the contribution from sewage point sources is minor. Since sediment P release is mostly recycled P from the settled spring bloom, the P inputs from seawater and freshwater are now the major drivers of the IA P cycle. Recycling of P from sediments boosts surface water P concentrations in autumn and winter, affecting management target concentrations.