Demographic Aging in the United States: Implications for Population and Income Redistribution in the Year 2000

William J. Serow, Michael A. Spar
1982 The Review of Regional Studies  
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of a prolonged period of sustained low fertility upon shifts in the population distribution of the United States among Department of Energy (DOE) regions. For purposes of simplicity, the assumption is made that the Series III projections of the U. S. Bureau of the Census (1977) will hold over the projection period. The assumptions underlying this projection are: a) an ultimate level of completed cohort fertility (average number of lifetime
more » ... ber of lifetime births per woman) of 1.7; b) increase of life expectancy from 69.1 (1976) to 71.8 years (2050) for men and from 77.0 to 81.0 years for women; c) net immigration of 400,000 per year. The population of the year 2000 will be the focal point of this research. Under these conditions, migration will emerge as the primary agent for internal population redistribution. The tack which will be taken here will be to divide migration into economic (employment) and non-economic aspects. While the latter is important, treatment of it here will be essentially exogenous-that is, projections of migration for causes such as retirement, college attendance, and military service will be based only upon an ex trapolation of recent age-spedflc trends. Thus, changes in the relative size of these migration streams will reflect changes in the national age and sex composition. Employment based migration though will be approached from an ana lytical perspective. Changes in the industrial composition of the nation's labor force will be derived from projected changes in income and con sumption patterns resulting from the advent of sustained low fertility. This nationwide composition will then be decomposed in light of recent trends in the regional distribution of employment by industry. Hence, it will be feasible to derive inter-regional shifts in employment and inter regional employment related migration. This result, coupled with the previous statements about non-economic migration, provides a complete portrayal of migration differentials among regions. This then permits a portrayal for the year 2000 of the population
doi:10.52324/001c.7980 fatcat:ijrmq6qgcrbavba5ybflyvgg6y