Landslide prediction system for rainfall induced landslides in Slovenia (Masprem)

Mateja Jemec Auflič, Jasna Šinigoj, Matija Krivic, Martin Podboj, Tina Peternel, Marko Komac
2016 Geologija  
In this paper we introduce a landslide prediction system for modelling the probabilities of landslides through time in Slovenia (Masprem). The system to forecast rainfall induced landslides is based on the landslide susceptibility map, landslide triggering rainfall threshold values and the precipitation forecasting model. Through the integrated parameters a detailed framework of the system, from conceptual to operational phases, is shown. Using fuzzy logic the landslide prediction is
more » ... ction is calculated. Potential landslide areas are forecasted on a national scale (1: 250,000) and on a local scale (1: 25,000) for five selected municipalities where the exposure of inhabitants, buildings and different type of infrastructure is displayed, twice daily. Due to different rainfall patterns that govern landslide occurrences, the system for landslide prediction considers two different rainfall scenarios (M1 and M2). The landslides predicted by the two models are compared with a landslide inventory to validate the outputs. In this study we highlight the rainfall event that lasted from the 9th to the 14th of September 2014 when abundant precipitation triggered over 800 slope failures around Slovenia and caused large material damage. Results show that antecedent rainfall plays an important role, according to the comparisons of the model (M1) where antecedent rainfall is not considered. Although in general the landslides areas are over-predicted and largely do not correspond to the landslide inventory, the overall performance indicates that the system is able to capture the crucial factors in determining the landslide location. Additional calibration of input parameters and the landslide inventory as well as improved spatially distributed rainfall forecast data can further enhance the model's prediction. Izvleček V članku predstavljamo sistem za napovedovanje verjetnosti nastanka plazov v času v Sloveniji (Masprem). Sistem napovedovanja plazov, ki se bodo sprožili zaradi padavin, je osnovan na karti verjetnosti pojavljanja plazov, sprožilnih/mejnih količin padavin za posamezne geološke enote ter modelskih napovedi padavin. Preko vključenih parametrov je prikazan potek dela, od idejne do operativne stopnje. Pri izračunu napovedovanja plazov je bila uporabljena mehka logika. Območja nastanka možnih plazov se računajo dvakrat dnevno, in sicer na državni ravni (v merilu 1:250.000) ter na lokalni ravni (merilo 1:25.000), kjer se za pet izbranih občin računa izpostavljenost prebivalcev, objektov in infrastrukture. Zaradi različnega vpliva padavin na pojav plazov, sistem napovedovanja upošteva dva različna scenarija za padavine (M1 in M2). Plazovi, ki jih napovedujeta ta dva modela, so primerjani z plazovi v bazi plazov, z namenom preverjanja ujemanja in validacije. Posebej so obravnavane obsežne padavine med 9. in 14. septembrom 2014, ki so botrovale sprožiti preko 800 plazov po celotni Sloveniji ter povzročile veliko gmotno škodo. Rezultati modelov kažejo, da so predhodne padavine pomembne pri napovedovanju. Kar je razvidno iz rezultatov modela 1 (M1), kjer le te niso upoštevane. Čeprav so bili plazovi napovedani nekoliko pogosteje kot so se prožili, je na splošno učinkovitost pokazala, da sistem zajema ključne dejavnike za ugotavljanje lokacije plazu. Dodatne kalibracije vnesenih parametrov in same baze plazov ter izboljšanje natančnosti prostorske napovedi padavin bodo izboljšale napovedovanje plazov.
doi:10.5474/geologija.2016.016 fatcat:3rcwu3qb5ngnzlx3sfbb6s6rzm