An Efficient Method to Take into Account Forecast Uncertainties in Large Scale Probabilistic Power Flow

E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, A. Pitto, S. Massucco, F. Silvestro
2018 2018 Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC)   unpublished
The simulation of uncertainties due to renewable and load forecasts is becoming more and more important in security assessment analyses performed on large scale networks. This paper presents an efficient method to account for forecast uncertainties in probabilistic power flow (PPF) applications, based on the combination of PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and PEM (Point Estimate Method), in the context of operational planning studies applied to large scale AC grids. The benchmark against the
more » ... chmark against the conventional PEM method applied to large power system models shows that the proposed method assures high speed up ratios, preserving a good accuracy of the marginal distributions of the outputs.
doi:10.23919/pscc.2018.8442508 fatcat:5y5pfvvjv5e5de6k2mcuxvghlq