FUZZY ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Zhalezka, Navitskaya, Kobziev
unpublished
In this paper region is considered as the territory limited by the existing administrative territorial segmentation because only administrative segmentation has authorities and opportunities to manage of socioeconomic development. The term of "the socioeconomic development" includes an indication of the simultaneous control of several areas: economic, financial, demographic, social, ecological. The complex of these fields leads to the effective socioeconomic development named sustainable. But
more » ... sustainable. But each of these fields is characterized by set of criteria. As a result the number of analyzed parameters ups to several dozen. The regional governance is interesting in evaluation of each area and of the whole system development. More over the estimation should be made in dynamic and in comparison with other counties. For this purpose the system of indexes should base on open source data. This paper presents the fuzzy clustering application for object evaluation. The methodology of research this analysis was applied to experimental research at Bela-rusian regions. For experimental check of our methodology we apply it to the evaluation of socioeconomic development of Grodno's local region (Belarus). We used the data for 28 indexes value of 17 Grodno's local regions and city Grodno in 2008-2014. All of them were led to the comparable form. It was interesting to estimate the correlation between these indexes. The following result was received by correlation analysis: there is a strong relationship between the value of the population (one of the main demographic indicators) and the majority of economic indicators (regional budget (0.95), turnover (0.93), retail trade (0.97), paid services (0.97), the volume of industrial production (0.9), the number of employed in the economy (0.99)). It mean that population (or the number of employed in the economy) is the determining factor for economic growth in Belarus regions. The absence of indexes for evaluating information and communication technologies at local regional level doesn't let us to characterize local economy as post-industrial. The methodology provides an opportunity of using an integral criterion for assessment and building a rating of regions by this criterion. The strong correlations between indexes allow to use the principal components analysis. First principal component (determined by following indexes: regional budget, investments, retail trade, paid services, receivables and payables, employment value, industrial production, goods turnover and value of constructions) retains 51.99% of the variance. It reaffirms that Belarusian economy is not at the post-industrial step yet. The second principal component retains 13.3% of the variance. This component is mostly determined by rural factors (livestock capita and productivity of yield). For the national economic development integral criterion is gross domestic product (GDP). The analog of this criterion on regional level is gross regional product (GRP). But it's determined only by value-added approach and in Belarus only for high Regional County. It's possible to adopt the expenditure approach to the local re
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