O PLANEJAMENTO DE CENÁRIOS COMO APRENDIZADO

Antonio Lourenço Junior, Luiz Claudio Vieira De Oliveira, Zélia Miranda Kilimnik
2010 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies  
Scenario planning has increasingly been utilised as a tool to test and improve organizational performance within dynamic environments. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental model of Scenario Planning to mobilize, encourage and provide added content to the organizational decision making processes, primarily as related to the Strategic Planning of two governmental institutions: a pharmaceutical industry and a foundation devoted to technological education.
more » ... logical education. Here, phases are detailed, whereupon a hybrid model of scenario planning -herein under named Planning through Learning -is applied, by means of research and action. The scenarios that result from the experiment are presented and the most relevant results of an evaluation pertaining to this practice are laid forth. To this effect, two widely acknowledged Scenario Planning models -that of the Prospective school and Shell´s model -which posed as reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model concerning the two study targets, were analysed. The technique´s evaluation process was undertaken resorting to a questionnaire that collected high reliability indexes and also by means of participant interviews. Results testify the model´s efficiency in supporting the decision making process at competitive environments within which both researched institutions operate.
doi:10.7444/future.v2i1.20 fatcat:7blccuhd6zad3kznemreteagui