Statistical reconstruction of daily temperature and sea-level pressure in Europe for the severe winter 1788/9 [post]

Duncan Pappert, Mariano Barriendos, Yuri Brugnara, Noemi Imfeld, Sylvie Jourdain, Rajmund Przybylak, Christian Rohr, Stefan Brönnimann
2022 unpublished
Abstract. The winter 1788/9 was one of the coldest winters Europe had witnessed in the past 300 years. Fortunately for historical climatologists, this extreme event occurred at a time when many stations across Europe, both private and as part of coordinated networks, were making quantitative observations of the weather. This means that several dozens of early instrumental series are available to carry out an in-depth study of this severe cold spell. While there have been attempts to present
more » ... y spatial information for this winter, there is more to be done to understand the weather variability and day-to-day processes that characterised this weather extreme. In this study, we seek to reconstruct daily spatial high-resolution temperature and sea level pressure fields of the winter 1788/9 in Europe, from November through February. The reconstruction is performed with an analogue resampling method (ARM) that uses both historical instrumental data and a weather type classification. Analogue reconstructions are then post-processed through an ensemble Kalman fitting (EnKF) technique. Validation experiments show a good skill for both reconstructed variables, which manage to capture the dynamics of the extreme in relation to the large-scale circulation. These results are promising for more such studies to be undertaken, focusing on different extreme events and other regions in Europe and perhaps even further back in time. The dataset presented in this study may be of sufficient quality to allow historians to better assess the environmental and social impacts of the harsh weather.
doi:10.5194/cp-2022-10 fatcat:itpqxteagvczjkmzkxxhbcefjq