Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data

Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, Pascal Yiou
2019 Earth System Dynamics  
<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> We derive a minimal dynamical systems model for the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude jet dynamics by embedding atmospheric data and by investigating its properties (bifurcation structure, stability, local dimensions) for different atmospheric flow regimes. The derivation is a three-step process: first, we obtain a 1-D description of the midlatitude jet stream by computing the position of the jet at each longitude using ERA-Interim. Next, we use the embedding
more » ... e to derive a map of the local jet position dynamics. Finally, we introduce the coupling and stochastic effects deriving from both atmospheric turbulence and topographic disturbances to the jet. We then analyze the dynamical properties of the model in different regimes: one that gives the closest representation of the properties extracted from real data; one featuring a stronger jet (strong coupling); one featuring a weaker jet (weak coupling); and one with modified topography. Our model, notwithstanding its simplicity, provides an instructive description of the dynamical properties of the atmospheric jet.</p>
doi:10.5194/esd-10-555-2019 fatcat:xa3u6cz2cvc3rij34fhl3zr2ay