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In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast the drift of objects in near coastal ocean on a period of several weeks. The proposed approach consists in estimating the probability of events linked to the drift using Monte Carlo simulations. It couples an averaging method which permits to decrease the computational cost and a statistical method in order to take into account the variability of meteorological loading factors.doi:10.1137/050639727 fatcat:vfwhj7erifh5jk7onb6o4pnxrm