Universal features of epidemic models under social distancing guidelines [article]

Mahdiar Sadeghi, James Greene, Eduardo Sontag
2020 bioRxiv   pre-print
Different epidemiological models, from the classical SIR system to more sophisticated ones involving population compartments for socially distanced, quarantined, infection aware, asymptomatic infected, and other individuals, share some remarkable dynamic characteristics when contact rates are subject to periodic or one-shot changes. In simple pulsed isolation policies, a linear relationship is found among optimal start time and duration for reduction of the infected peak. If a single interval
more » ... cial distancing starts too early or too late it will be ineffective with respect to decreasing the peak of infection. On the other hand, the nonlinearity of epidemic models leads to non-monotone behavior of the peak of infected population under periodic relaxation policies. This observation led us to hypothesize that an additional single interval social distancing at a proper time can significantly decrease the infected peak of periodic policies, and we verified this improvement.
doi:10.1101/2020.06.21.163931 fatcat:hjzrogcp7vg5za4ducf7z3mu6e