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On Forecasting Techniques In Socio-Economic Environment
1999
Journal of King Abdulaziz University-Economics and Administration
Several forecasting methods for a target (or response) variable Y is considered. Of these, even simple explanatory-variable-based forecast, let alone multiple explanatory-variable-based causal-chain forecasting models, should provide superior, to most "expert" judgment and various extrapolation-based, time series analyzing methods of Box-Jenkins type and other "black box" related forecasts. Steps in the development of the relevant theoretical apparatus for judging the quality of data base
doi:10.4197/eco.12-1.1
fatcat:2f6v24bdbzhnhatl6dl6evsc5u