HarmonEPS - the HARMONIE ensemble prediction system

Inger-Lise Frogner, Ulf Andrae, Jelena Bojarova, Alfons Callado, Pau Escribà, Henrik Feddersen, Alan Hally, Janne Kauhanen, Roger Randriamampianina, Andrew Singleton, Geert Smet, Sibbo van der Veen (+1 others)
2019 Weather and forecasting  
HarmonEPS is the limited-area, short-range, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system developed and maintained by the HIRLAM consortium as part of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM system. HarmonEPS is the ensemble realization of HARMONIE-AROME, used for operational short-range forecasting in HIRLAM countries. HarmonEPS contains a range of perturbation methodologies to account for uncertainties in the initial conditions, forecast model, surface, and lateral boundary conditions. This paper
more » ... s the state of the system at the version labeled cycle 40 and highlights some directions for further development. The different perturbation methods available are evaluated and compared where appropriate. Several institutes have operational or preoperational implementations of HarmonEPS, such as MEPS (Finland, Norway, and Sweden), COMEPS (Denmark), IREPS (Ireland), KEPS (the Netherlands), AEMET-gSREPS (Spain), and RMI-EPS (Belgium), and these systems are briefly described and compared with the ensemble prediction system (IFS ENS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
doi:10.1175/waf-d-19-0030.1 fatcat:sb3tqjegczhh7oszkoab4ffcpe