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The Pricing of Geopolitical Risk in Cross-Sectional Commodity Futures Returns
2022
Based on a four-factor model, I investigate whether geopolitical risk is a pricing factor in cross-sectional commodity futures returns. By estimating the exposure of commodity futures returns on a geopolitical risk index, I find that commodities with high-risk beta generate 7.92% higher annual returns than those with low-risk beta. The results indicate that high geopolitical risk-related commodity futures contracts require extra compensation. A moving average procedure shows that the
doi:10.25949/21391776.v1
fatcat:jixi23lk75gtfdld44qvlr3mky