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To explore the influence of primary results during the 2008 nomination process we leverage a previously unused methodology-the analysis of prediction market contracts. The unique structure of prediction markets allows us to address two unexplored questions. First, we analyze whether primary results affect candidates' chances in the general election, as candidates who take strong positions during the nomination contest may be unable to easily appeal to centrist voters in the general election. Wedoi:10.2139/ssrn.1333785 fatcat:bqk63x7lrrf6rob5e7kb7na4iy