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Main 3 points: (1) A melt pond distribution conservation equation is developed to simulate the evolution of Arctic sea ice melt ponds. (2) Simulated spatiotemporal variability of melt pond area fraction is generally in good agreement with satellite observations. (3) Melt pond area and volume on declining Arctic sea ice have changed little during the period 1979-2016.doi:10.1029/2018jc014298 fatcat:phyw6gx4sjeovoopiqwww5brwa