Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis

Farzad Ebrahimzadeh, Ebrahim Hajizadeh, Nasim Vahabi, Mohammad Almasian, Katayoon Bakhteyar
<span title="2015-09-19">2015</span> <i title="IUMS Press"> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="" style="color: black;">Medical Journal of The Islamic Republic of Iran</a> </i> &nbsp;
Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy,
more &raquo; ... regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.
<span class="external-identifiers"> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener" href="">pmid:26793655</a> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener" href="">pmcid:PMC4715395</a> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener" href="">fatcat:qi4v4jwmczgq3edunujztimm5m</a> </span>
<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="" title="fulltext PDF download" data-goatcounter-click="serp-fulltext" data-goatcounter-title="serp-fulltext"> <button class="ui simple right pointing dropdown compact black labeled icon button serp-button"> <i class="icon ia-icon"></i> Web Archive [PDF] <div class="menu fulltext-thumbnail"> <img src="" alt="fulltext thumbnail" loading="lazy"> </div> </button> </a> <a target="_blank" rel="external noopener" href="" title="pubmed link"> <button class="ui compact blue labeled icon button serp-button"> <i class="file alternate outline icon"></i> </button> </a>