We develop a model for regulation of galactic star formation rates Sigma_SFR in disk galaxies, in which ISM heating by stellar UV plays a key role. By requiring simultaneous thermal and (vertical) dynamical equilibrium in the diffuse gas, and star formation at a rate proportional to the mass of the self-gravitating component, we obtain a prediction for Sigma_SFR as a function of the total gaseous surface density Sigma and the density of stars + dark matter, rho_sd. The physical basis of this

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... ationship is that thermal pressure in the diffuse ISM, which is proportional to the UV heating rate and therefore to Sigma_SFR, must adjust to match the midplane pressure set by the vertical gravitational field. Our model applies to regions where Sigma < 100 Msun/pc^2. In low-Sigma_SFR (outer-galaxy) regions where diffuse gas dominates, the theory predicts Sigma_SFR \propto Sigma (rho_sd)^1/2. The decrease of thermal equilibrium pressure when Sigma_SFR is low implies, consistent with observations, that star formation can extend (with declining efficiency) to large radii in galaxies, rather than having a sharp cutoff. The main parameters entering our model are the ratio of thermal pressure to total pressure in the diffuse ISM, the fraction of diffuse gas that is in the warm phase, and the star formation timescale in self-gravitating clouds; all of these are (in principle) direct observables. At low surface density, our model depends on the ratio of the mean midplane FUV intensity (or thermal pressure in the diffuse gas) to the star formation rate, which we set based on Solar neighborhood values. We compare our results to recent observations, showing good agreement overall for azimuthally-averaged data in a set of spiral galaxies. For the large flocculent spiral galaxies NGC 7331 and NGC 5055, the correspondence between theory and observation is remarkably close.