Performance of WRF-ARW Model on the Track and Intensity Prediction of VSCS Hudhud over BoB System

Ankur Srivastava, Someshwar Das, Kamal Jain
Journal of Civil Engineering and Environmental Technology Print   unpublished
Performance of WRF model was examined for Track and Intensity prediction of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Hudhud (7 th-14 th October, 2014). The analysis and forecast field of IMD-GFS was utilized for the initial and lateral boundary condition. Results demonstrated that WRF-ARW provided adept forecast of cyclone characteristics. Using obtained products, the track could be predicted three to four days earlier with maximum average track error less than 350 km (72 nd hour forecast lead time).
more » ... pex value of average intensity error was less than 25 knots and 17 hPa (both 48 th hour forecast lead time) for Maximum Sustained Wind (MSW) and Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) respectively. Approximate error in landfall time was three to four hours.