A prognostic nomogram in AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma based on LASSO Cox regression [post]

Dong dong Zhou, Xiao li Liu, Xin hui Wang, Feng na Yan, Peng Wang, Hui wen Yan, Yu yong Jiang, Zhi yun Yang
2020 unpublished
PurposeHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative (<8.78 ng/mL) have special clinicopathologic characteristics and prognosis. The aim of this study was to apply a new method to establish and validate a new model for predicting the prognosis of HCC patients with AFP-negative.Materials and MethodsA total of 410 AFP-negative patients with clinical diagnosed with HCC as a primary cohort; 148 AFP-negative HCC patients as an independent validation cohort. In primary
more » ... cohort. In primary cohort, independent factors for overall survival (OS) by LASSO Cox regression were all contained into the nomogram1; by univariate and multivariate Cox hazard analysis were all contained into the nomogram2. Nomograms performance and discriminative power were assessed with concordance index (C-index) values, area under curve (AUC), Calibration curve and decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were validated in the validation cohort.ResultsThe C-index of nomogram1was 0.708 (95%CI: 0.673-0.743), which was superior to nomogram2 (0.706) and traditional modes (0.606-0.629). The AUC of nomogram1 was 0.736 (95%CI: 0.690-0.778). In the validation cohort, the nomogram1 still gave good discrimination (C-index: 0.752, 95%CI: 0.691-0.813; AUC: 0.784, 95%CI: 0.709-0.847) and good calibration. The calibration curve for probability of OS showed good homogeneity between prediction by nomogram1 and actual observation. DCA demonstrated that nomogram1 was clinically useful. Moreover, patients were divided into three distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram1: low-risk group, middle-risk group and high-risk group, respectively.ConclusionsNovel nomogram based on LASSO Cox regression presents more accurate and useful prognostic prediction for patients with AFP-negative HCC. This model could help AFP-negative HCC facilitate a personalized prognostic evaluation.
doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-49195/v1 fatcat:er6b2esrrzblznilm4so4xiruy