NO TRUMP!: A statistical exercise in priming [post]

andrew gelman
2016 unpublished
How are people unconsciously influenced by the rise of Donald Trump? We test the theory that Trump's rise has irrationally changed the behavior of one group of people: elite bridge players, whom we assume are otherwise completely typical. We examine the hands played in one of the premier North American bridge events, the Vanderbilt Knockout Tournament, in 1999 and 2015. We find that players had significantly higher probabilities of making No Trump contracts in the 2015 period compared with the
more » ... compared with the earlier periods. We conclude that in the latter period, defending players are subtly deranged by the prospect of Trump and play their hands worse. By contrast, a 2015 European tournament shows no significant difference with the earlier 1999 tournament. This strengthens our conclusion.
doi:10.31235/osf.io/yun8m fatcat:rkuaokefufgepi2tg4anj5zwwy