How accurate are the professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries How accurate are the professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries

Qiwei Chen, Mauro Costantini, Bruno Deschamps, Qiwei Chen, Mauro Costantini, Bruno Deschamps
2015 unpublished
This paper assesses the performance of professional GDP growth and inflation forecasts for ten Asian economies for the period 1995-2012. We evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts, and test for unbiasedness and efficiency. Our results show that (i) forecast errors are large for most of the countries, but large differences exist between countries; (ii) forecasts improve slowly passing from long to short horizon, which contributes to explain the magnitude of forecast errors; (iii) GDP growth
more » ... sts underreact to economic news but inflation forecasts are mostly efficient; (iv) the size of forecast biases varies widely between countries, with a tendency for inflation to be overestimated; (v) forecasts have value in predicting the direction of change.
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