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How accurate are the professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries How accurate are the professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries
This paper assesses the performance of professional GDP growth and inflation forecasts for ten Asian economies for the period 1995-2012. We evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts, and test for unbiasedness and efficiency. Our results show that (i) forecast errors are large for most of the countries, but large differences exist between countries; (ii) forecasts improve slowly passing from long to short horizon, which contributes to explain the magnitude of forecast errors; (iii) GDP growthfatcat:bgosudkbirhj7mehcojkmplmwy