Probabilities [chapter]

Nuel Belnap, Thomas MÜller, Tomasz Placek
2021 Branching Space-Times  
This chapter offers a BST theory of propensities (i.e., of objective single-case probabilities), which builds on the account of indeterministic causation developed in Chapter 6. Propensities are shown to deliver classical (Kolmogorovian) probability spaces. The chapter draws a distinction between propensities and probability measures. The former are assigned to sets of BST transitions, in particular to sets of causae causantes of transitions, and are interpreted as degrees of possibility of
more » ... e transitions. The latter are defined in terms of propensities and are measures of Komogorovian probability spaces. Features of propensities are derived from a logico-causal analysis. Finally, the chapter discusses how the theory developed here handles well-known objections to propensities due to Humphreys and to Salmon, especially Humphreys's paradox.
doi:10.1093/oso/9780190884314.003.0007 fatcat:3gudcz4vv5fk7gjhe6wojue4im