A model is presented for the reliability growth of a system during a test program. Parameters of the model are assumed to be random variables with appropriate prior density functions . Expressions are then derived that enable estimates (in the form of expectations) and precision statements (in the form of variances) to be made of » projected system reliability at time T after the start of the test program . system reliability after the observation of failure data Numerical examples are

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... , and extension to multi-mode failures is mentioned. P(u T iT) -J J P(ujT;x =x,ii = ^)f^(x,^|T)dxdi A L(T;X,n)f x (X,^ dXdn = J J P(U T |T;X= X,ü = n) J jL(T;X,n)f (X,n) dXdu J J P(U T ,T|X= X,ü=^)fx i| (X,n) dXd^ J J L(T;X,^f x^( X l A) dXd^ -20 -