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We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction-learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect-based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship exists and asking how strong that causal relationship might be. We show that two leading rational models of elemental causal induction, DP and causaldoi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2005.05.004 pmid:16168981 fatcat:kme3kazymrfpzcol5olyz27h2e