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The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 21 1.5°C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 22 0.9°C from the mid-19 th -century to the present decade. We show that limiting 23 cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 24 warming to less than 0.6°C in 66% of Earth System Model members of the 25 42 Main text: 43 The aim of Paris Agreement is "holding the increase in global average 44 temperature to well below 2°Cdoi:10.1038/ngeo3031 fatcat:3ue7c44wvvfhvnwkelns4m4hzm