Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C

Richard J. Millar, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Pierre Friedlingstein, Joeri Rogelj, Michael J. Grubb, H. Damon Matthews, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Piers M. Forster, David J. Frame, Myles R. Allen
2017 Nature Geoscience  
The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 21 1.5°C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 22 0.9°C from the mid-19 th -century to the present decade. We show that limiting 23 cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 24 warming to less than 0.6°C in 66% of Earth System Model members of the 25 42 Main text: 43 The aim of Paris Agreement is "holding the increase in global average 44 temperature to well below 2°C
more » ... bove pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts 45 to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C " 1 . The Parties also undertook to 46 achieve this goal by reducing net emissions "to achieve a balance between 47 anthropogenic sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the 48 delayed IPCC-WG3 430-480ppm (grey) scenarios. Dotted lines show non-
doi:10.1038/ngeo3031 fatcat:3ue7c44wvvfhvnwkelns4m4hzm