Both experimental method and numerical method are used to analyze the large variation in the material ductility of high pressure die casting (HPDC) Aural-2 alloy in the present work. The Xray tomography (XRT) technique is used to characterize and reveal the significant variation of the internal porosity for the investigated material. The von Mises plasticity model in conjunction with a mixed Swift-Voce hardening law, and a stress state dependent fracture initiation criterion are used to

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... ly describe the deformation response of the material. Very good agreement with the experimental results is obtained in the predicted average force-displacement responses for the calibrated stress states. A probabilistic damage mechanics model is put forward to depict the apparent stochastic ductile fracture behavior over a wide range of stress states. The 5 th and 95 th percentiles of the fracture initiation locus are recalibrated based on the proposed probabilistic ductile fracture model, which could provide an almost perfect prediction of the maximum and minimum bounds of force-displacement curves.