Examining Structural Change and Cyclical Length in the U.S. Sheep Industry

Larry VanTassell, Glen D. Whipple
1992 unpublished
ihe cyclical nature of the sheep industry was examined From 1924From -1990. Tests for structural change were also conducted. Results indicate that cyciical length in inventory and prices has decreased over time with a current 16and 27-year cycle For stock sheep and a 10and 25-year cycle for lamb prices. my Business cycles are recurring variations in production and/or prices of a year or more in length. Production and price cycles have been found to exist ror several agricultural commodities.
more » ... well known beef cattle cycle occurs every nine to twelve years, with a 10-year average cycle a well known phenomenon (Franzmann 1971; Ginzel) . A pronounced 4-year cycle and 28-year cycie has been identified in the hog industry (Franzmann 197°), and a 5-year to 7-year cycle in the landings and prices of oceanic fish (Waugh and Miller). Little has been written concerning the cyclical nature of the U.S. sheep industry. Perhaps the long-term decline in sheep numbers over the past five decades has overshadowed any recurring sheep inventory cycles. The purpose of this research was to determine if a recurring cyclical element has existed in lamb prices and in inventory levels of U.S. stock sheep.
doi:10.22004/ag.econ.321383 fatcat:gvj36jdqcjc37jncyyr7swn7ou