A study of the incubation period, or age at onset, of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies/ prion diseases

Marion Joan Anstee Wooldridge
2013
In order to model epidemics of infectious diseases, particularly to estimate probable numbers of cases with onset at any particular time, it is necessaiy to incorporate a term for the incubation period frequency distribution. Sartwell's hypothesis states that the incubation period frequency distribution for infectious disease is generally a log-normal distribution, based on his examination of disease with short incubation periods. However, it may not apply to diseases with long incubation
more » ... s. During the course of an epidemic of a disease with a long incubation period, left and right censoring makes direct observation of the frequency distribution highly unreliable; in addition, time of infection is often unknown. Therefore, for a previously undescribed disease, methods other than direct observation must be employed. One method is to extrapolate from information available for other diseases.
doi:10.17037/pubs.00682220 fatcat:krebmwmpdfamvbi2cngrd3pufm