Assessment and planning for emerging impacts of climate change on species [thesis]

Sean Maxwell
Life on Earth has entered its sixth mass extinction event and humans are to blame. If left unchecked, global species loss will compromise the delivery of valuable ecosystem services and reduce human well-being, making it one of humanity's most compelling challenges. A growing cause of global species loss is anthropogenic climate change. Efforts to assess and plan for climate change impacts on species have largely ignored impacts from more frequent and intense extreme weather events (i.e.
more » ... te' impacts) and impacts that arise from humans responding to climate change (i.e. 'indirect' impacts). Climate change is likely to become a dominant driver of global species loss unless conservation assessment and planning efforts account for the full suite of climate change impacts, including discrete and indirect impacts. Changes in extreme weather event patterns could present a greater risk to species persistence than impacts from changes in climate means (e.g. gradual increases in surface temperature or sea level rise). However, limited information about how species respond to extreme weather events limits about ability to assess and plan for these discrete impacts of climate change. In chapter 2, I review species responses to five types of extreme weather event: drought, flood, cyclones, heat waves and cold waves. I discover that extreme events have already caused widespread and severe population declines and have altered species assemblages. I also show that previous observational studies tell us very little about species' sensitivity or capacity to adapt to extreme events. Both discrete and continuous forms of climate change are forcing human communities to adapt in diverse ways. Some human responses to climate change, such as increased water extraction or oil exploration in the Arctic, will intensity threats to species of conservation concern. Other human responses, including agricultural land abandonment and mangrove restoration, may incur environmental benefits in the coming years. In chapter 3, I describe how these indirect impacts of climate change can be integrated into climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans. iii I have relied heavily on the support of those around me to complete this thesis. On countless occasions, I have relied on such support to progress past feelings of uncertainty or disillusion, and re-focus on making my research outputs as useful and relevant as possible. As such, I feel the acknowledgements that follow form one of the most important contributions to this thesis. Firstly to my supervisory team. You could do anything with your life, James. I still believe you are destined for a career in political commentary. But the wild places you care so much about are lucky to have you as their guardian. As are your students. Thanks for your unrelenting encouragement and belief in me. And for pushing me to meet the same high standards you set for yourself. I am a much better scientist because of it. To Eve and Jonathan -I'll be forever grateful to you both for guiding me though my honours year, and your support during this PhD has been invaluable. I wish I utilised your technical expertise more. To Oscar Venter -my favourite scientific wordsmith. Your eloquent writing style and approach to spatial analysis is often imitated, but never equalled. UQ has become a lesser place without you. Thank-you to the other all the academics who have provided support and inspiration, including Paul
doi:10.14264/uql.2018.789 fatcat:7uyiudtmcbbx5ms3z5nc26i6hy