COVID-19 risk evaluation and testing strategies based on contact tracing network and information analysis [article]

Ankush Kumar
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Contact tracing and efficient testing can have an imperative part in containing the COVID-19 spread, with minimal social and economic disruption. Testing serves many purposes: isolating the COVID-19 positive tested individuals, identifying the contacts at the risk, and locating the hotspots and safe zones for administrative planning. However, it is a challenging task to identify the right individuals for the test in view of the high COVID -19 spread, a large number of presymptomatic and
more » ... tomatic and asymptomatic cases, and limited testing capabilities. The individuals for COVID -19 are identified based on direct-contact, travel history, and symptoms, which are more individualized and do not explicitly include a group risk assessment, and in turn, do not preclude the transmission from the superspreaders. Policymakers need to limit testing in the shortage of test resources, and focus on gaining the most information from the tests performed. In this work, we introduce a protocol for the identification of the group of individuals to be tested for acquiring maximum risk information of a community with minimum individual tests. Firstly, an algorithm is proposed to determine the risk profile of all the individuals in the community by incorporating serial and parallel pathways of the infection transmission considering multiple steps of transmission. Next, we consider several potential groups that could be tested from the community, and analyze them one by one for their comparison. In a group, few individuals can be positive, and the remaining few can be negative, generating sets of several test-outcomes with unequal probability. The protocol involves the probability calculation and reassessment of the network's risk profile in all the test output cases. Finally, the best group is identified in all the groups studied, in which risk profiles between post and pre-test are maximally different. The analysis shows that in general, information increases with an increase in the group size. Notably, a strategically chosen small group may provide more information from the test results, than a standard larger group. The proposed systematic strategy would help in the selection of the right individuals for the testing, and in extracting far more information from the minimum samples, to effectively aid the epidemic mitigation. The protocol is generic, and can also be applied to any other epidemic spread in the future.
doi:10.1101/2020.11.30.20240762 fatcat:3ubyutikynbtlf6szgsrvx7npa