Calibration of Dynamic Building Energy Models with Multiple Responses Using Bayesian Inference and Linear Regression Models

Qi Li, Li Gu, Godfried Augenbroe, C.F. Jeff Wu, Jason Brown
2015 Energy Procedia  
This paper proposes a lightweight Bayesian calibration of dynamic models that accounts for model parameter uncertainties. A regression model was built to represent the dynamic model using parameter screening and multiple linear regression. Given this regression model and prior probability distributions of its input parameters, a Bayesian calibration method is developed to provide their posterior distributions. A case study is presented and the result shows considerable alignment between model
more » ... ent between model prediction and measurement after calibration. This indicates its capability to perform fast risk-conscious calibration for most current retrofit practice where only monthly consumption and demand data are available.
doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.11.037 fatcat:tl4sxgzcqfaltbfxiwrxj2aciy