Maximum likelihood estimation of hidden Markov processes

Peter Lakner, Halina Frydman
2003 The Annals of Applied Probability  
We consider the process dY t = u t dt + dW t , where u is a process not necessarily adapted to F Y (the filtration generated by the process Y ) and W is a Brownian motion. We obtain a general representation for the likelihood ratio of the law of the Y process relative to Brownian measure. This representation involves only one basic filter (expectation of u conditional on observed process Y ). This generalizes the result of Kailath and Zakai [Ann. Math. Statist. 42 (1971) 130-140] where it is
more » ... umed that the process u is adapted to F Y . In particular, we consider the model in which u is a functional of Y and of a random element X which is independent of the Brownian motion W. For example, X could be a diffusion or a Markov chain. This result can be applied to the estimation of an unknown multidimensional parameter θ appearing in the dynamics of the process u based on continuous observation of Y on the time interval [0, T ]. For a specific hidden diffusion financial model in which u is an unobserved mean-reverting diffusion, we give an explicit form for the likelihood function of θ. For this model we also develop a computationally explicit E-M algorithm for the estimation of θ. In contrast to the likelihood ratio, the algorithm involves evaluation of a number of filtered integrals in addition to the basic filter. 1. Introduction. Let ( , F , P ), {F t , t ≤ T } be a filtered probability space and W = {W t , t ≤ T } a standard Brownian motion. We assume that filtration {F t , t ≤ T } is complete and right continuous. We consider process Y with the decomposition
doi:10.1214/aoap/1069786500 fatcat:nv52s3luffcjlaboslb3qubrva