Biased Resampling Strategies for Imbalanced Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Mariana Oliveira, Nuno Moniz, Luis Torgo, Vitor Santos Costa
2019 2019 IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA)  
Extreme and rare events, such as abnormal spikes in air pollution or weather conditions can have serious repercussions. Many of these sorts of events develop from spatio-temporal processes, and accurate predictions are a most valuable tool in addressing their impact, in a timely manner. In this paper, we propose a new set of resampling strategies for imbalanced spatiotemporal forecasting tasks, by introducing bias into formerly random processes. This spatio-temporal bias includes a
more » ... r that regulates the relative importance of the temporal and spatial dimensions in the selection of observations during under-or over-sampling. We test and compare our proposals against standard versions of the strategies on 10 different georeferenced numeric time series, using 3 distinct off-the-shelf learning algorithms. Experimental results show that our proposal provides an advantage over random resampling strategies in imbalanced spatio-temporal forecasting tasks. Additionally, we also find that valuing an observation's recency is more useful when over-sampling; while valuing its spatial distance to other cases with extreme values is more beneficial when under-sampling. a set of locations L = {l 1 , · · · , l n }, a set of time-stamps T = {t 1 , · · · , t m }, and a set of observations
doi:10.1109/dsaa.2019.00024 dblp:conf/dsaa/0001MTC19 fatcat:yokglgj2y5fszl4m2zh4i22goa