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The potential change of drought measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is projected by using a coupled climate system model under a Representative Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The PDSI changes calculated by two potential evapotranspiration algorithms are compared. The algorithm of Thornthwaite equation overestimates the impact of surface temperature on evaporation and leads to an unrealistic increasing of drought frequency. The PM algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith equationdoi:10.1080/16742834.2013.11447093 fatcat:5wvev2n6svgwpgwgr2ryospk64