Energy Technology Scenarios for the Future: Lessons from the Developed World [article]

Humphrey Maambo
Accurate forecasting of energy needs is faced with many challenges due to the complexity of its qualitative influence parameters. Energy scenario foresights are expected to consider these various parameters as they are an integral part of future energy prices and technologies in developing countries such as Zambia. Future prices regarding energy are expected to face similar external trends as present ones. This means that they are likely to experience similar day to day challenges. Energy
more » ... logies may not be commercialised because of regulatory, economic, performance, organizational, market or a combination of any two or more of these classifications. The fact that some of these parameters can be reasonably quantified implies that reference could be made from experiences and challenges faced in developed countries such as Scotland. Most energy scenarios that consist of different energy source mixes are designed to give the same energy service whether it is lighting, cooking, space heating, water heating or refrigeration as few examples. Case studies have however proven that these services could also be misused if efficiency of the energy delivery service is improved. Therefore, it will take more than just improving efficiency to ensure that grids in developing countries like Zambia are made stable. Most energy scenarios have lots of uncertainty due to the reliance of resource data for different sources on past data. This means that additional energy buffers are necessary even when the developed energy source mix meets the targeted demand. For Zambia, the dominance of hydropower and biofuels in the country's energy mix prompts the need to pursue additional energy buffers through enhanced diversification in other energy sources such as solar, geothermal, and wind.
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12252920.v2 fatcat:kwntmadt7jecxg3apdbwhwqvvu