Exploring the spread dynamics of COVID-19 in Morocco [article]

Mohamed NAJI
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Despite some similarities of the dynamic of COVID−19 spread in Morocco and other countries, the infection, recovery and death rates remain very variable. In this paper, we analyze the spread dynamics of COVID−19 in Morocco within a standard susceptible−exposed−infected−recovered−death (SEIRD) model. We have combined SEIRD model with a time−dependent infection rate function, to fit the real data of i) infection counts and ii) death rates due to COVID−19, for the period between March 2nd and Mai
more » ... 5th 2020. By fitting the infection rate, SEIRD model placed the infection peak on 04/24/2020 and could reproduce it to a large extent on the expense of recovery and death rates. Fitting the SEIRD model to death rates gives rather satisfactory predictions with a maximum of infections on 04/06/2020. Regardless of the low peak position, the peak position, confirmed cases and transmission rate were well reproduced.
doi:10.1101/2020.05.18.20106013 fatcat:smub722aknaenfmmic7wubuzrq