Development of Accident Forecasting Models in Freeway Tunnels using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
다중선형 회귀분석을 이용한 고속도로 터널구간의 교통사고 예측모형 개발

Ju-Hwan Park, Sang-Gu Kim
2012 The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems  
This paper analyzed the characteristics of traffic accidents in all tunnels on nationwide freeways and selected some various independent variables related to accident occurrence in tunnels. The study aims to develop reliable accident forecasting models using the various dependent variables such as the number of accident (no.), no./km, and no./MVK. Finally, reliable multiple linear regression models were proposed in this paper. This study tested the validity verification of developed models
more » ... gh statistics such as R 2 , F values, multicollinearity, residual analysis. The paper selected the accident forecasting models considering the characteristics of tunnel accidents and two models were finally proposed according to two groups of tunnel length. In the selected models, natural logarithm of ln(no./MVK) is used for the dependent variable and AADT, vertical slope, and tunnel hight are used for the independent variables. The reliability of two models was proved by the comparison analysis between field data and estimating data using RMSE and MAE. These models may be not only effective in evaluating tunnel safety under design and planning phases of tunnel but also useful to reduce traffic accidents in tunnels and to manage the traffic flow of tunnel.
doi:10.12815/kits.2012.11.6.145 fatcat:ru6hpewhcba6xcqjqo6yarjv6q