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Journal of Climate
The authors apply a procedure called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) for examining the utility of a set of covariates for predicting the distribution of U.S. hurricane counts and demonstrating a consensus model for seasonal prediction. Hurricane counts are derived from near-coastal tropical cyclones over the period 1866-2008. The covariate set consists of the May-October monthly averages of the Atlantic SST, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, Southern Oscillation index (SOI), and sunspotdoi:10.1175/2010jcli3686.1 fatcat:mizbazvyejgnncvgm5b26m6wba