Demand and residual demand modelling using quantile regression

Linh Phuong Catherine Do, Lars Ivar Hagfors, Kuan-Heng Lin, Peter Molnár
2016 Renewable Energy and Environmental Sustainability  
Residual demand, the difference between demand and solar and wind production, is an important variable in predicting the future price and storage requirements. However, little is known about predicting the residual demand itself as well as its quantiles. Therefore, we model both demand and residual demand using both ordinary and quantile regression and compare the results for the hourly electricity consumption in Germany. We find that the residual demand is less predictable than demand. The
more » ... ct is visible for all hours, and is higher for the lower than the upper quantiles.
doi:10.1051/rees/2016045 fatcat:e46sjzomxfb35e5s76y4aldbvm