Performance of the recommended ESC/EASD cardiovascular risk stratification model in comparison to SCORE and NT-proBNP as a single biomarker for risk prediction in type 2 diabetes mellitus [post]

Suriya Prausmüller, Michael Resl, Henrike Arfsten, Georg Spinka, Raphael Wurm, Stephanie Neuhold, Philipp Bartko, Georg Goliasch, Guido Strunk, Noemi Pavo, Martin Clodi, Martin Hülsmann
2021 unpublished
Background. Recently, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and European Association for the Society of Diabetes (EASD) introduced a new cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification model to aid further treatment decisions in individuals with diabetes. Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic performance of the ESC/EASD risk model in comparison to the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk model and NT-proBNP in an unselected cohort of type 2 diabetes mellitus
more » ... s & Results. A total of 1690 T2DM patients with a 10-year follow up for fatal CVD and all-cause death and a 5-year follow up for CVD and all-cause hospitalizations were analyzed. According to ESC/EASD risk criteria 25 (1.5%) patients were classified as moderate, 252 (14.9%) high, 1125 (66.6%) very high risk and 288 (17.0%) were not classifiable. Both, NT-proBNP and SCORE risk model were associated with 10-year CVD and all-cause death and 5-year CVD and all-cause hospitalizations while the ESC/EASD model was only associated with 10-year all-cause death and 5-year all-cause hospitalizations. NT-proBNP and SCORE showed significantly higher C-indices than the ESC/EASD risk model for CVD death [0.80 vs 0.53, p<0.001; 0.64 vs 0.53, p=0.001] and all-cause death [0.73, 0.66 vs 0.52, p<0.001 for both].The performance of SCORE improved in a subgroup without CVD aged 40-64 years compared to the unselected cohort, while NT-proBNP performance was robust across all groups.Conclusion. The new introduced ESC/EASD risk stratification model performed limited compared to SCORE and single NT-proBNP assessment for predicting 10-year CVD and all-cause fatal events in individuals with T2DM.
doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-58028/v3 fatcat:z7alq5oymzfxtl7vad3lytjqzq